Ohio 2nd Blog

With the Enquirer’s Politics Extra “blog” putting up six posts on Roxanne Qualls returning to political life in the last fours days even I am starting to worry about there being a liberal bias in the media. I guess it’s good to see that veteran Democrats are returning to active duty in Southern Ohio now that the waters have become more inviting. Better late then never.

Also, Bill Sloat has an interesting post on the fundraiser being hosted by Vernal G. (Skip) Riffe III for newbie Democrat Steve Black. It would seem that like the Phoenix, the ghost of Vern Riffe has flown out of the ashes on wings of gold. Given the bizzaro power structures that make up the eastern portions of the fighting 2nd this is an interesting piece to add to the puzzle that is Stephen L. Black.

I will give one friendly warning to candidate Black. Scioto county is Jim Parker country. You’d better start knocking on a hell of a lot of doors if you want to have a chance against the Parkinator.

Buckeye State Blog has posted a response from the Steve Black campaign to their story of his frequent donations to Republican candidates.

Modernesquire over @ Buckeye State Blog has been going over Ohio 2nd Democratic candidate Stephen Black‘s campaign donations and has turned up such Ohio Republican heavy hitters as Mary Taylor (06), Greg Hartmann (06), Jim Petro (01, 03 & 04), Bob Taft (01), Ken Blackwell (01), Betty Montgomery (01), and Joe Deters (01).

Given how hard Paul Hackett was hit for once switching sides and picking a Republican ballot in a primary, I’m sure that this will stir up a few people. Still, he did donate to Vic Wulsin in 06

I’m certain that some will see this as a plus for someone running in the once safe Republican 2nd. Still, it’s not going to help things in the primary.

It’s certain that the Black campaign saw this line coming, so it will be interesting to see how they play it.

Fundraising numbers are in for the two “front-runners” (front-runners?!) in the Ohio 2nd’s Democratic primary. At their current pace both Democrats are on track for beating the primary money records set by Republican Pat DeWine in his losing bid for the 2nd in the 05 special election.

Steve Black

From the start the first bullet point on Steve Black’s resume was his ability to leverage his status as Indian Hill mover and shaker to raise cash. In our interview early this year Mr. Black said that fundraising was something that he is very skilled at. Veteran journalist Bill Sloat spells out the case for Black:

He’s a genuine Indian Hill blue blood whose dad was a judge. The corporate crowd in downtown Cincinnati can feel comfortable with him — he once headed the Harvard Club and was on the board at Seven Hills School, a private prep school. In other words, on paper he’s got the feel of being a Democratic version of Rob Portman, who was undefeatable in OH-02 and gave up the seat to become the Bush administration’s trade rep, then budget director. And, Portman worked at Graydon Head before running for Congress.

And under normal circumstances Black’s numbers are impressive. According to FEC Q2 reports he has raised $209,500.

Under the surface a few things stand out: $58,320 of it is a loan to himself, and a significant portion comes from family and coworkers at Graydon Head & Ritchey. Still… these are wells that Black can go to many times over the course the campaign.

Dr. Victoria Wulsin

One bit of insider gossip that I heard from people close to the Wulsin campaign was that one of the main areas of tension between the Doctor and her once campaign manager Mary Huttlinger was over resistance, common with newbie candidates, to the constant demands of fundraising. It’s certainly why Paul Hackett has such disdain for the political process. This election Ms. Huttlinger and Dr Wulsin have parted ways and she is working for Attorney Steve Black.

That’s why I was surprised to find out today that Wulsin for Congress is reporting Q2 numbers of $213,000, outraising Black with or without his personal borrowing. BSB was also impressed.

The Wulsin for Congress campaign crows:

Wulsin’s strong showing in her first quarter as a candidate for 2008 continues to demonstrate the strength of her campaign and her growing base of support, with more than 99 percent of her funds raised coming from individual donations. [This contrasts with 41% of Schmidt’s funds coming from individuals, in the 2006 race, the last year for which data is available.] Having come within one percentage point of defeating Schmidt in 2006 and winning more votes in Ohio’s Second District than any previous Democratic candidate, Wulsin has proven her self well-positioned to defeat the incumbent Congresswoman.

“I am starting earlier and I am starting stronger,” Wulsin said. “I am grateful for the encouragement I’ve received from the people of the Second District. This early outpouring of support indicates the strength of my campaign and desire for grassroots change in our district.”

Wulsin’s impressive fundraising strengthens her position as the candidate best suited to unseat the widely unpopular Schmidt, whose vulnerability is acknowledged by Republicans and Democrats alike. After scraping through the last election with only a one point lead, Schmidt has already received a spot on Karl Rove’s list of the most vulnerable members of Congress. Her highly publicized mistakes, such as repetitive lying (one leading to a reprimand by the Ohio Electoral Commission); impugning the valor of a fellow Congressman; downplaying hazardous and unsafe conditions where veterans are hospitalized; and marching in lock-step with the president’s escalation of the war – demonstrate her failing to effectively represent the district, reflect poorly on her constituents, and hurt her chances of re-election.

It’s our opinion that Steve Black is going to have to out raise and out hustle Dr. Wulsin if he’s going to have a chance of beating her in the primary. Wulsin is an experienced campaigner with a devoted base. Add to that the fact that primaries generally lean left, playing to Vic’s strengths.

So far it’s 0-1 Wulsin.

Well, sports fans… this is going to be one hell of a barn burner. Like it ever isn’t here in the OH02

Today at 4pm at his Indian Hill home attorney Steve Black will officially declare his candidacy to run for Congress in the 2nd District. Mr. Black is an attorney with the Cincinnati law firm of Graydon, Head & Ritchey.

Several days ago he was kind enough to let me interview him on the positions. I found him to be very a personable and sincere person. Only by reminding myself of how carefully guarded some of his answers were did the 30 years of legal experience come through.

While he made a point of telling me that he wasn’t experienced at running for Congress, he came off to me as someone who could get up to speed quickly. While he’s not a barnstormer, his opinions are refreshingly unboilerplate. We talked openly about abortion, health care, defense spending, guns , Iraq, and global warming. The fact that he veered right into a passionate advocacy of nuclear power was interesting in light of the issues here in the district. This will probably be the last chance to hear unvarnished answers from the candidate before he gets put through the standard wash cycle of campaign staffers, so enjoy.

I listen back at the interview and kick myself over how unprepared and rambling my questions were. Hopefully you won’t find them too annoying. I do love to hear myself yammer on.

steve_black_interview_5-15-07.mp3

The thing that struck many people right off that fact is that Black’s campaign manager used to be Vic Wulsin’s. If there’s a story there and you know there’s a story there, Mary Huttlinger isn’t spilling the beans. I’m sorry but Steve’s the complete candidate package just isn’t going to cut it. I’m sure that the weeks ahead will bring out lots of juicy gossip to wile away the months as we suffer through this God forsakenly too long campaign season. (Personally, I’m not sure how many more action items, urgent appeals, and heartfelt yet empty orations I can stand. Doesn’t anyone have a job anymore? Surely being a Senator takes time, doesn’t it?)

Bottom line, at this point Black’s candidacy is more significant because of what he is than what he believes in. As a man highly connected to some of the richest political donors in the country, his entry radically shifts the Democratic primary landscape. The question is how much? Many underestimate Vic Wulsin’s substantial backing from the liberal base in the district. Vic’s core is very loyal. This is a primary. Money doesn’t have nearly the edge that it does in the general. Candidates are rallying the base. Right off the bat I’d give her a 35% to 40% head start. Anyone (except one person) who runs against her will have to shatter a significant portion of that margin in order to have a chance. However, when you talk to anyone thinking of heading her off, including Black, the last thing they want to say is that they are running “against” Vic Wulsin. I’m running FOR mom, apple pie, and the right to drive around in oversized SUVs, not against Vic. Get an internal poll 30 days before the primary that has you down 20 points and see what sort of sucker punches your war room will be coming up with. As Reese Bobby always says, if you’re not first, you’re last.

Right now this pundit would have to say that with the name recognition, strong core, momentum from 2006, and battle experience Vic Wulsin still has to be considered the odds on favorite in the 2nd.

Politics is a deceptively difficult craft. Much like poker and Jackass, it’s easy for someone to look at it and think that they can be good at it. Steve Black will have to prove to people quickly that he’s got the right stuff to play this ugliest of blood sports. He says he does… right before he tells you that he’s never really done this before.

Well… welcome to the game, Mr. Black. The Ohio 2nd is the most talked about, action packed Congressional District in the country. Thus it is the nastiest. I do hope you’ve brought a helmet.

• BSB > OH-02: Add Steve Black to the List
• Daily Kos > OH-02: Steve Black To Run
• Politics Extra > A challenger for Wulsin?