Tue 20 Feb 2007
And So It Begins… (UPDATED)
Posted by Editor under Democrat , Republican , Rumor , Wulsin[12] Comments
It’s been a while, but I couldn’t really sit on this one:
Word has it that Russ Arey, Democratic State Central Member for the 14th District, and Vice-Chair of the Clermont County Democratic Party has been indicating to local playas that he’s intending to run in the 2nd. Supposedly it’s with the encouragement of Governor Ted Strickland and ODP Chair Chris “Talk To Me” Redfern. Certainly two good friends to have in your corner. Russ is a one of the most dynamic figures in Southern Ohio politics. It will be fun to see him on the stump.
As for Dr. Vic Wulsin, whose razor thin loss embarrassed the local and national Democratic power brokers, she has been sited in the Beltway since being rejected for a cabinet position in the Strickland administration. Many think she deserves another match against the Congresswoman. Personally, I wonder what she can bring to the table to match the perfect storm that was 2006.
On the Republican side Phil Heimlich, Tom Brinkman, and Joe “I like handing Republican seats to Democrats on a silver platter” Deters are rumored to be considering taking Congresswoman Schmidt on. At this point I don’t see any of them as being serious threats against her. Heimlich is damaged goods… Brinkman’s already blown his play… and Dieters, well nuff said. Besides, Schmidt’s survived two of the most grueling, back to back, elections one could imagine. Her minority status actually gives her a nice buffer since she can no longer be blamed for not accomplishing anything. Keep her head down and she’ll be almost impossible to beat. That is, unless…
The big question on everyone’s lips is what about Paul. Certainly, Hamilton County Prosecutor Joe Deters all but made the seat a lock for Major Hackett. However, these days the I just want to serve my county fresh from Iraq political neophyte has been ground into dust and replaced with a weary, battle scarred, cynical veteran thanks to the criminal conspiracy known as American politics. Talk to him about Congress and he’s got much worst things to say about the Democrats and their non binding resolutions than either Jean Schmidt or George “son of a bitch” Bush. As for his legacy: Hell, I got to call the President of the United States a chicken hawk on the cover of the New York Times. I’m happy with that. Legacy indeed.
You do have to ask yourself how serious Ted Strickland, Chris Redfern and the DCCC are about winning the 2nd when they haven’t even spoken to Paul Hackett about running again. Word is from many circles that the Governor simply doesn’t like the man who raised so much money for him in the past. What politics and like have to do with each other is beyond me. You couldn’t kill for the press Hackett’s been getting, and his hash criticism of both sides on such issues as immigration and the Iraq war would make sure that he’ll move a conservative lock like the 2nd straight into the top tier for the Democrats. Not that he wants the job, but it does make you wonder how strong the Democrats will to win really is.
The one thing that I really hate about Democratic politics in Ohio is that it resembles more a high school clique than a political machine. Say what you will about Karl Rove, but he never let his feelings distract him from the score board.
UPDATE: Ironic that this was happening in Hackett’s neighborhood last night.
Chris, I shared some of the below with Nix Guy. It will factor in to the 2008 race.
The two days I spent with a Hollywood film crew last fall and the dirt I shared about Jean will also come into play next year. The film will be at film festivals this spring. It is being produced by some folks that helped with F 9/11.
Rolling Stone will also likely feature the film. The guy I did an interview with in November is likely to feature it in the magazine. If this film gets ANY traction in OH-2 then you can expect Jean to take a fall in March 2008.
And yes, all of the dirt was 100% true. From her lies about her fake college degree for 17 (count them) 17 years, her illegal trips to Cuba and support of Castro, her role in Larry Householder’s scheme and the fact that she was a puppet for the corrupt Taft-Householder regime.
Jean is one of the most corrupt politicians in the country, factor in how incompetent she is and the evidence that she is a psychopath and there is no way she survives the next primary.
Nate
Brinkman is DOA, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran anyway.
Good to read your posts again. This is very interesting and typical (file under why Democrats always shoot themselves in the foot). I like Russ and think he’s a great guy and would probably be a good candidate and a great rep. I know he’d vote in the best interest of the residents of the 2nd. But what does this say to candidates who have put themselves out there, worked hard and built up the percentages and the Democratic party in the 2nd?
Hackett did a fantastic job when no one thought a Democrat could come close. He got 48% If the DCCC and other groups had jumped in sooner and given more support, he probably could have pulled it off.
Wulsin did a great job especially given the resources. She got 49% Again with more help from the DCCC and some others, she could have gotten the few extra votes she needed. I think the Dems were extremely successful in the 2nd. Now Wulsin and Hackett have name recognition and experience. 1 point more is very possible. What did Wulsin do to anybody in the party? Have they asked her if she wanted to run again? This is not about Russ, a truly good guy. This is about the leadership.
Eric,
Please elaborate on why you think Brinkman is “DOA.”
Nate
DG,
Dr. Wulsin is a very nice lady but two key factors will keep her from winning OH-2:
(1) She is NOT a Blue Dog D. ONLY a Blue Dog could ever win OH-2.
(2) Jean Schmidt is THE reason both Hackett and Wulsin did as well as they did. ANY other Republican candidate would at LEAST be back in the mid-60’s and any true conservative would be back in the 70’s where Portman was.
If Schmidt gets knocked out in the Primary then Dr. Wulsin would be lucky to 40% against Deters, Brinkman, or Heimlich.
In 2014 when OH-2 is redrawn then the D’s may have a chance. But this is an overwhelming conservative district. If Jean is still in there then you can expect her to lose Clermont County and be toast.
Dr. Wulsin should run in a liberal district, she’d have a real chance to win in someplace like OH-11. She may even be more viable in OH-1 against Chabot. Adams County tells you all you need to know about OH-2. Hackett won it and Vic did not. People in the sticks will NEVER vote for a liberal, just a fact of life you must accept.
Nate
Sure, Nate, sure. Things are just the same and won’t ever change. The Republican policies nationally and in Ohio have been so successful and everything is just going great. That’s why the encumbant senators in Ohio, Virginia and Montana won. Oh, they didn’t? You mean the voters in safe red states changed their minds? The Democrats also won the House of Representatives? Hey, can voters do that?
Well go ahead Mack daddy Russ!!! I LOVE this!! Russ Arey would be GREAT!! There isn’t a better man with more integrity and drive to do what is right. I cant tell ya’ll how much this man impressed me during the last election. There wasn’t anybody hustling and working to to get shit done like Russ and actually getting results. Russ doesnt care about ego or how things look as long as they are right. He gets right in there and helps makes things happen. He works smart and hard. Against all odds, Clermont county’s showing is a direct result of his work. You couldn’t ask for a better man to represent the 2nd. (No, I’m not his PR gal.)
Sadly, Ohio democratic leaders don’t really seem to be interested in actually winning. I don’t think it matters who runs, the Strickland/Redfern group aren’t going to do much more than give reassuring hugs. Paul jumped off the cliff and they watched him fall. Vic was just as much of her own problem than the party but the DCCC could of helped her overcome that and win. They made a conscious decision not to. Democrats winning in the 2nd district is only a priority of the people in the 2nd district. What “should” happen is not going to happen. Please act accordingly. Although I must say if anyone could wring blood out of a turnip it would Russ Arey.
OK…
Hello Mrs. E! Russ is a great guy and a terrific real Democrat. He should also be a one heck of a fundraiser. Who ever wins the Democratic primary should get all the help from the big guns (can you hear us DCCC) they need. The 2nd is winnable. The county parties have some experience now and are much better at campaigning. Now if Hamilton Co. can deliver, the 2nd would be Democratic.
Russ,
I spent all day Saturday in just about every corner of the 2nd District. Most of the day was spent in Hamilton County.
A few months ago, I promised that I was going to be everywhere and I always keep my promises. There were 5 good Democratic candidates during the last primary. Any one of us could have won the primary and two of us would have won in November.
Most of us were just out-spent during the primary. So, what I accomplished was done with nothing. There is a power in that type of accomplishment that our party isn’t used to…
This past weekend, I had lots of people ask me to run again when I went door to door in Hamilton County. Honestly, when it comes to 2008, I have not yet decided. I will however, run in 2010.
If you run in 2008 (and if you win the primary) I have a few ideas that I’d like to share with you about how a Democrat can win the Ohio 2nd. If you only take your advice from a few political insiders and ignore the things that I can share with you, you will suffer the same fate as the Democratic candidates of the past.
It is unfortunate that the best candidates don’t always win the primary. Imagine the problems in America that could be solved if the government was made up of competent (instead of self-serving) individuals.
Good luck. As I’ve promised every Democratic candidate of the past, I will not be running against you. I will be running with you.
Jim Parker
Future Democratic Candidate for US Congress
Southern Ohio – 2nd District – 2005, 2006… 2010
http://jimparker4ad.blogspot.com/
Ok Folks:
Heimlich…damaged goods. Brinkman…way tooooooo far left, and a looney besides. And Deters PUHLEEEZ.
Right now Jeanie is gaining strength. I think the NEAR losses with Hackett and Wulsin have told her to calm her jets and listen and do the right thing. Can she? No idea.
The Dems need to understand something. They must challenge MJ with a viable candidate who can represent the main stream in this district. Do they have one? I have yet to see one.
Mr E says “The one thing that I really hate about Democratic politics in Ohio is that it resembles more a high school clique than a political machine. Say what you will about Karl Rove, but he never let his feelings distract him from the score board”..Mr E I think you have hit the nail ON THE HEAD.
Good to be back. Time is now to make the move!
SOrry folks….Brinkman is TOOO FAR RIGHT not LEFT……