In a thread over at Project Logic I was asked about my opinion of the poll leaked by the Wulsin campaign and the validity of what it said as well as comparing Vic’s performance to Paul’s. Here’s an updated version of my reply:

If you where to compare where Vic is today to where Paul was at the same time, Vic would seem to be doing better in terms of campaigning technique. She’s speaking better and she has a more focused message. She’s also had a lot more time to develop that message. Still, in terms of raw charisma, Paul is the man. The fact that Vic’s name ID is so low makes me think that this has very little to do with her. Schmidt is a very polarizing candidate. She is well known and she inspires passion in people.

Also, there was major message dissonance in the Hackett campaign. This cause a certain level of static that I think damaged the campaign. Republicans never make this mistake. The Hackett people weren’t running a Hackett campaign (more related to bullriding than traditional politicing). Thus the schizo nature to it. Vic Wulsin will have a simpler time of this. Alas, she will also have less raw material to work with. Cameras will not draw to her like they did to Hackett.

Do I believe the poll? I believe that it is what it is. A poll leaked by the campaign it’s supporting. It shows that there is a sliver of chance in a perfect abstract world. Vic Wulsin is not running in a perfect abstract world. She is running in a Republican district. Bush’s backyard as I like to call it. It’s a double edge sword. It will inspire the DCCC, MoveOn and especially Emily’s list to take notice, but it will also push the Wulsin campaign back into typical liberal complacency. We can’t imagine why people would vote for Schmidt and not understanding the motives of your opponents is usually a precursor to one’s downfall.

Few know this but the Hackett campaign DCCC had a similar poll to this that didn’t leak. Polls are polls, but good solid organization is what wins elections.

In the end in terms of the final outcome I see this poll as virtually meaningless. The Dem machine is weak in Schmidt’s Republican stronghold of Clermont County where the Republicans are very very strong. The key to the second is Clermont County, and I see that comfortably being owned by Jean Schmidt, even with the toxic McEwen primary. McEwen was tainted enough for it to not have any lasting damage to the climate.

Wulsin needs Hamilton County to step up big time. Unfortunately the Dems are plagued by infighting and dry rot. They are one of the major reasons why Jean Schmidt is a Congresswoman now. The fact that Commissioner Todd Portune admitted to fundamental problems with the County Party to me when I asked him about it makes me trust in the validity of my opinion. I have seen no fundamental changes to that situation to update them from the special.

In the end superior Republican organization and lack of respect for fundamentals from the Dems make this seat still solidly Republican, in my humble estimate. The Dems are many years away from being ready to take on the Republican organization in the 2nd. By then the district will be totally redrawn.

The wildcard as always is Brinkman and COAST. I honestly don’t see their tactic working this time despite the Murtha crack. Murtha doesn’t resonate with far right anti tax Republicans. In the end if they try a rear guard it will very likely fail.

One thing going for Wulsin is that Schmidt is strapped for cash. There won’t be any $500,000 gift checks coming from the beltway this time. She’s on her own. If Wulsin can tap into the netroots like Paul, she could do some damage. While Schmidt is always a draw, this is an election year so it will be a lot harder to work that angle, especially without the fighting Dem meme.

The one other thing going for Wulsin is the possible prospects of a Democratic wave of the state. I frankly don’t see the ODP being organized enough to effectively trigger that wave. They are focused on Strickland and Strickland alone.

The keys to Wulsin’s success will be several fold:

  • Several home run moments in confrontations with Schmidt. She needs a knockout in a debate or else the press will automatically report it as a draw.
  • Since she’s playing from way behind, so she’ll need to foul. Aggressive campaigning is key.
  • Coordinated cross promotion with other candidates will be essential. Wulsin helps Strickland helps Brown helps etcetcetc. Duplication of effort is deadly. Message unity helps greatly with resonance for everyone.
  • Wulsin needs to step up her pace considerably. Fundraising. GOTV. Message. All need to be hitting at their maximum. She’s been one of the most sluggish of Ohio House candidates.
  • The Southern Ohio dems will need to get their act together big time.
  • Schmidt will need another fumble. She’s been pretty consistent about dropping the ball, so this is a definite possibility.

Having said all this Dems should in no way be discourage by any of this. The poll indicates that prospects are WAY better than anyone thought. Win or lose Schmidt is a great motivator for team building and solid effort in the South will bring huge benefits to the State party no matter what.