They’re tied! Good times, sports fans.

More at DKos (one, two) and BSB.

The polling company’s memo to the Wulsin campaign after the fold.

UPDATE: The poll questions

UPDATE 2: Vic’s got two of the DKos top recommended diaries now. Our Jeanie is such a great draw.

UPDATE 3 (Note to the Enquirer): HA HA!

Momentum Analysis, LLC
opinion research
1406 21st Street, NW Washington, DC 20036
www.momentumdc.com

To: Wulsin for Congress Campaign
From: Margie Omero, Momentum Analysis, LLC
Re: Recent polling results in OH-2

This memo reports on the findings of a survey of 403 interviews in Ohio’s 2nd CD, conducted by Momentum Analysis, LLC. The survey was conducted by telephone July 8-10, 2006. A voter file sample was used, and voters were screened to be likely November 2006 voters. The margin of error for the sample overall is +/- 4.9%.

Date: July 12, 2006

Our recent polling shows this race to be dead even, and Congresswoman Jean Schmidt to be one of the more vulnerable incumbents in the country. These data conservatively estimate party self-identification (47% Republican, 34% Democrat) and registration (45% Republican, 23% Democrat). But despite that, our results clearly show Schmidt suffering not only in a weak anti-Republican climate, but also from a negative image of her own creation. In fact, Schmidt is less popular than embattled President George W. Bush. Democratic candidate Victoria Wulsin is in a strong position to capture this seat in November. Our findings are as follows:

The climate here is weak for Republicans, as it is elsewhere in the country

  • Voters are pessimistic about the direction of the country, and of Southern Ohio
  • Outgoing Governor Taft’s numbers are unbelievably weak
  • President Bush’s numbers are also very weak
  • Voters are divided on which party should control Congress

Schmidt is weak in her own right, as well

  • She is well-known, but unpopular among those who know her
  • In fact, she is weaker than President Bush
  • Only Taft is less popular than Schmidt
  • This yields an even race for Wulsin
  • Wulsin is less well-known, but still ties Schmidt
  • An incumbent should exceed majority support before we include leaners, but Schmidt fails to meet that threshold
  • Wulsin does better with Democrats than Schmidt does with Republicans
  • Schmidt is also weak in the re-elect, making her one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the nation

As elsewhere in the country, the climate for Republican incumbents is weak here

Congressional races around the country in seats that have been traditionally Republican are now considered competitive because of pessimism about the country, a national anti-incumbency sentiment, and a poor image of President Bush. This pattern holds in Ohio’s 2nd CD as well. A majority (55%) feel the country is moving in the wrong direction, with fewer (38%) feeling it is on the right track. Views of Southern Ohio’s are equally pessimistic (34% right direction, 53% wrong track), which is unusual; typically voters are more optimistic about their area than about the nation. This suggests even deeper pessimism than in other regions of the country.

This deep pessimism leads to poor images of the incumbents we tested. Governor Bob Taft’s numbers are astoundingly bad, with fewer than a quarter (23%) having either “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” impressions of him, and two-thirds (68%) having either “very unfavorable” or “somewhat unfavorable” impressions of him. Barely any (2%) have a “very favorable” impression, with four in ten (40%) volunteering that they are “very unfavorable” toward the outgoing Governor. Even Republicans are unfavorable toward Taft (30% favorable, 65% unfavorable).

President Bush’s numbers, while not as abysmal as Taft’s, are still bad. Bush receives statistically even favorability and unfavorability (51% favorable, 47% unfavorable), with more having “very unfavorable” impressions (34%) than “very favorable” (30%). While for nearly all elected officials, job performance ratings are usually worse than favorability ratings, Bush’s job performance ratings are decidedly weak. Only four in ten (41%) give him a positive job rating (either “excellent” or “good”), with a clear majority (58%) rating him negatively (either “only fair” or “poor”). More than twice as many give him a “poor” rating (37%) as an “excellent” rating (15%). Typically, an incumbent strives for a net favorable-to-net unfavorable ratio of at least 2-to-1, and a net positive-to-net negative ratio of at least 1.5-to-1. Bush’s ratios are 1.1-to-1 and 0.7-to-1, respectively, demonstrating that he falls well short of where he should be as a sitting President in a district where nearly half of the electorate are of his own political party.

In yet another sign of Republican weakness, voters in this Republican district are evenly divided as to whether they would prefer to see Republicans or Democrats control Congress (43% Republicans, 42% Democrats). Republicans are moving away from their own party, as a fifth (18%) of registered Republicans say they would prefer to see Democrats win control of Congress, compared to only 8% of registered Democrats who would prefer to see Republicans maintain control. Nearly half (49%) of voters not registered with either party would prefer to see Democrats win control (only 37% say Republicans).

But Congresswoman Schmidt is weak in her own right

There is more to this race than simply a bad national climate for Republicans. Freshman Congresswoman Jean Schmidt’s repeated missteps during her short tenure have made her a well-known, and unpopular figure. She is net unfavorable (41% favorable, 46% unfavorable), with twice as many having a “very unfavorable” impression (30%) as a “very favorable” impression of her (15%). When we examine elected officials’ mean favorability ratings on a 4-point scale, where 4 means “very favorable” and 1 means “very unfavorable,” Schmidt’s mean score (2.30) makes her more unpopular than every figure tested, except for Governor Taft (mean: 1.84). Indeed, Schmidt is less popular than President Bush (2.48 mean score).

Similarly, Schmidt’s job ratings are even worse than President Bush’s. Only a third give Schmidt positive ratings (33%), while over half (53%) rate her negatively. Over three times as many give her “poor” ratings (27%) as “excellent” ratings (8%). Her mean job rating (2.16) is again lower than that of the President (2.20), as is her net positive-to-net negative ratio (0.6-to-1, compared to 0.7-to-1 for Bush).

While Schmidt is fairly well-known for a freshman Congresswoman (87% hard ID), being well-known and unpopular is not a good combination. She is no longer a blank slate, and has no clear group of voters to whom she can introduce herself positively. It is more difficult to turn around a negative image than to create a positive initial image.

As a result, Wulsin and Schmidt tie

Schmidt’s poor image is evident. Victoria Wulsin, by contrast, is less well-known at this stage (20% hard ID), but is the most popular figure we tested among those who know each (mean favorability: 2.76).

In the horserace, the two candidates are tied (44% Wuslin, 44% Schmidt, 11% undecided). Generally, incumbents hope to reach majority support without including “leaners,” that is, people who are initially undecided, but when asked, say they lean toward the incumbent. The assumption is that on Election Day, undecideds are more likely to break toward the challenger. No matter how we look at the horserace here, however, Schmidt is vulnerable; she doesn’t reach majority even when we do include leaners.

Wulsin begins doing a better job of consolidating her partisan base than does Schmidt. Eight in ten (81%) registered Democrats are voting for Wulsin, compared to only two-thirds (68%) of registered Republicans voting for Schmidt. Wulsin garners majority support among those not registered with either party (52% Wulsin, 36% Schmidt). Wulsin also leads in Hamilton County, the largest county in the district (50% Wulsin, 37% Schmidt).

Another way to gauge Schmidt’s vulnerability is what we call the “re-elect question,” which only asks about Schmidt, without any mention of her opponent. Fewer than a third (30%) said they would vote to re-elect Schmidt, while more (34%) said they would vote to replace her. Just as many said they would consider voting for someone else (19%) as are undecided (18%). A 30% re-elect figure is a clear sign of weakness. Our analysis of all 2006 public polling on this question shows Schmidt’s re-elect to be lower than nearly every other incumbent in the country, across offices and party lines. The only Congressional incumbent with a lower re-elect figure than Congresswoman Jean Schmidt is Congressman Don Sherwood (PA-10), who has been accused of choking his 29-year-old mistress.

Conclusion

There is no question that this is a district in play, not only because of the national climate, but because of the uniquely vulnerable state of Congresswoman Jean Schmidt. Democratic candidate Victoria Wulsin, with an early positive image and clear momentum, is poised to overtake her this November.