Mon 8 Aug 2005
There’s an interesting contrast of opinions on the health of our economy between the most recent post by Stirling Newberry, chief economist at Langner and Company, and our own BizzyBlog.
These paragraphs seem to sum up of Newberry’s perspective nicely:
What looking at real economic statistics says is that the US has been hovering above recession for over a year now. What is propping up the economy is a huge binge of spending - both war time spending such as the Iraq war and its associated costs, tax reductions that pump money into the economy, and huge pork bills like the transportation bill, the agriculture bill, the perscription drug benefit and the new energy bil.
In short, Bush is attempting to take America down the same road that Japan took in the wake of their 1987 crash: build a bubble in housing prices to keep the ruling party in power, and then use huge public spending injections, and geographic gerrymandering, to prevent the economy from completely meltingdown. (read more…)
Personally, the numbers that speak greatest to me are the parts of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that talk about Ohio. I’ve never seen anything in them to be happy about. Over the next few months I think that it would be good to offer some tools to graphically display the numbers for Ohio.
One advantage to being in a flatlining economy such as Ohio’s is that if there is a bust we will have much shorter distances to fall than more prospering regions in the country.
(via DKos with discussion)
5 Responses to “Economic Compare and Contrast”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.

August 8th, 2005 at 11:25 am
I think Stirling’s look is heavily flawed. His biggie is his labor slack, which assumes that a certain percentage of the population SHOULD be working, whether they indicate that they want to or not. I also believe that the job-increase numbers are missing a lot of genuine self-employed and home-based businesses (not Amway/Quixtars, yuk yuk).
He makes a good point or two anyway:
- people looking for houses, esp first time buyers but also those trying to move up to bigger ones, are experiencing “inflation” in the sense that what they’re trying to buy is going up 8% or so per year.
- OTOH, people in paid-off or high-equity homes are experiencing LESS inflation than even the advertised 2.5% or so.
- But the housing runup is causing dislocations.
But no way can anyone say 3.5%-4.0% GDP growth is hovering above a recession. That’s just absurd.
As to my own post, I really should have named it “Good economic news you’re not hearing.” The legitimately very good news items noted are definitely not getting played up, but at the end of the post I did add plenty of reasons to be at least cautious about things.
Ohio’s situation is bad BECAUSE of high taxes and wasteful government. You won’t like me saying this, but TEL is one of the answers.
August 8th, 2005 at 11:29 am
How does Ohio’s tax rate compare to other states? I keep hearing about how businesses are being taxed to death but I don’t buy it.
As for wasteful government, you’ll have to back that up as well. I don’t buy it at all. Easy to talk in generalities, hard to tell a senior citizen that they won’t be given access to health care.
August 8th, 2005 at 3:40 pm
Ohio is in the Top 5, actually #3, in overall state-local tax burden (5th para):
http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/printer/164.html
As to the waste, if you’re spending more as a percentage of everyone’s income than comparable states, you are at a minimum not being careful with the money, and you’re prabably wasting some of it.
I’m sure the TEL campaign will bring out enough true waste that I can afford to wait on their examples.
Personally, I’d privatize workers’ comp as I believe more than 40 states have, many since the beginning of such coverage. Then shareholders bear the costs of things like CoinGate if they happen at the insurance companies.
August 8th, 2005 at 4:14 pm
Sigh… now you’re going to make me dig through Ohio budgets.
August 8th, 2005 at 11:25 pm
Nah, let the TEL people do it for you; there’s plenty of time. :->
Besides, TEL actually institutionalizes the existing level of waste and overspending because it only limits future increases. I’d personally like to find 5%-10% to eliminate right now, and THEN put in TEL.