Sat 23 Jul 2005
In the closing days of the campaign you are going to hear more and more from the cynics and Beltway loser mentality liberals about how Hackett can’t win this race because it is such a solid Republican district. None of them have watched Republicans talk to Paul Hackett. None of it means anything.
One of the most interesting aspects of the game poker is what they call pot odds.
The typical Beltway Democrat will look at a race and if there isn’t a high chance of winning say forget it and save their money. That’s not how a poker player looks at things. You will often see pot odds in action if you watch shows like the World Poker Tour; a seasoned veteran calling on a hand that is obviously weak.
Let’s say you have a 25% chance of winning a hand in poker, BUT the return on your investment if you win is ten times what it would cost you to call. The pots odds dictate that since the return on your money is better than the odds that you will lose, you should call even though you will most likely lose. Your return is so great that it’s worth your while to take a chance.
What are the pot odds for the Democrats in the Ohio 2nd? The return for the Republicans is minimal. They aren’t going to win much of anything if Jean Schmidt wins. But for the Democrats the pot odds are massive. This is Bush’s home turf. This is the reddest district in the state that handed Bush the presidency. If the Democrats win here they will have punched open a breach in the heart of the Republican defenses. Suddenly all of the momentum will have shifted. Suddenly everyone will be listening to what Paul Hackett has to say and using his tactics to win other races.
Any poker player could tell you that the pot odds in this race are so good that you would be a fool not to bet on it. So in the coming days as you read more and more about what a hopeless race this is, do as Paul Hackett does and quote to them Thomas Paine: “Lead, follow, or get out of the way.“
If history is any judge, I’m guessing the beltway Democrats will be getting out of the way.
I was hoping they’d get into this race more… Pour some cash into the Hackett campaign, lend some public support… That way when Schmidt wins, we could spin it as a victory against Paul Hackett and the entire Democratic establishment. =)
Given the massive spending, rising deficits, failure to create a stable Iraq, failure to deal with the terrorist threat, and the collapse of the housing market because of rising interest rates, I doubt that you will have much time to be spinning anything about this race. But it will be fun to see you try, especially with a nice heated primary right around the corner.
Chris,
The poker analogy is excellent. Well-put.
Brilliant. This is exactly why this race is so important–it’s a huge opportunity for a smashing PR victory even more than it is a chance to pick up a seat in Congress. There will be loads of stories in the national press about Democratic momentum. These stories, in turn, will create more momentum. Even better, as you poing out, Republicans have nothing to gain here and Democrats have nothing to lose. Schmidt is expected to win. That’s why it’s worth all the effort we can throw at it.
OH-02: Saturday with Paul Hackett
Major Paul Hackett wants be the first veteran from the current Iraq War to also serve in Congress. This change of duty came a step closer yesterday when the Hackett camp had a successful day of organizing, both Tagaris and Crazy Catwoman were there, s…
Poker analogy: put your money into races you can win just like apoker player bets more with a better hand. The DNC is not stupid, they will not commit their reputation on winning this seat. Sure they would be pleasantly surprised.
The race is not Hackett’s to win, but Schmidt’s to lose. I have nothing to indicate she will do so.
$0% would be a great finish for Hackett, but he cannot win.
Eric, you’re invited to play at my poker game any time